Analysis
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Who voted for change!
In this latest data-driven research, we analyzed who voted for change from a gender, sectarian, and geographic perspective. This was possible by using the data produced by the Data Liberation Project (DLP) in collaboration with the Friedrich Naumann Foundation Beirut (FNF). The DLP aims to make electoral data, specifically the raw results, freely, easily, and openly available. Thus, the 2022, 2018, 2009, 2005, 2000, and 1996 parliamentary elections results are freely available in machine-readable, open-access format. You can access the research paper here
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When the clock strikes midnight!
At Midnight this Monday, President Aoun becomes Mr. Michel Aoun, a Lebanese citizen. This transition is the ancient Greeks’ greatest gift to humanity, a peaceful transition of power that does not involve familial inheritance. I was always struck by that almost magical moment when a citizen becomes More. Nothing illustrates that better than every four or eight years when a US President flanked by a General holding the nuclear football, with the power to end life as we know it, becomes an ordinary citizen while another person becomes More. Indeed, at noon last January 20, 2020, President Trump became an ordinary mortal, while Mr. Biden became the President of the…
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The Prime Minister elections, and government formation in Lebanon
The Prime Minister elections and government formation in Lebanon By Ibrahim Jouhari Following the elections of Speaker Berri, the time is now for the choosing of a new Prime Minister followed by government formation. Although Lebanon’s political system might seem complicated and archaic, there is a clear order for the next few steps that will lead to the nomination of a new PM and the formation of the government. This article will try to explain these steps and what they entail clearly. Binding Consultations: The first step will be for the President to call for binding consultations[1]. It is an election disguised under another term. All 128 new members of…
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Early indicators from the expatriates voting!
Tomorrow the parliamentary electoral process in Lebanon begins, starting with the expatriates voting worldwide. The voting will take place over two days, Friday for the country, in which the weekend falls on that day, and then Sunday for the rest. The elections will occur in 59 countries, up from 40 in 2018, in over 205 polling centers and 596 polling stations. countries centers bureau registered 2018 40 113 232 82,965 2022 59 205 596 225,114 The primary indicators will be the turnout and how smoothly and well organized the elections will be. Unfortunately, the detailed results will only be known when the general elections results are tallied. Indeed, the…
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A shift in the political landscape
By Ibrahim Jouhari Former PM Saad Hariri announced the suspension of his personal and political party’s participation in Lebanese political life in an emotional address. The former PM explained that despite his many efforts to compromise, some are unwilling to let the country move forward. He stressed that this negative trend has been amplified by a growing Iranian hegemony, in a tumultuous regional dynamic, with the international community’s lack of decisiveness. A lot of ink will be spilled, and time spent to analyze the consequences of this decision. The repercussions will be widespread, and it will have a long-lasting effect on the Sunni community and its political aspirations, and the…
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Why?
Since the start of the severe Lebanese crisis, more than two years ago, practically nothing has been done. No reforms to speak of, no capital control, no aid measures, nothing! The situation keeps getting worse, illustrated by an ever-falling exchange rate, while the central bank issues ad hoc decisions with no consultations, preparations, or declared plan. Small depositors are being bled dry by a universal haircut approaching 70 to 80%, prices keep rising, and the cost of most services have increased by 300 to 400%, fuel is now ten times more expensive than a year ago, same for electricity, while mobile and internet prices are about to follow suit. So…
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Security and elections, first and foremost!
For the last two years Lebanon has been described as “facing an unprecedented crisis, on the edge of the abyss, teetering on a narrow ledge, …”. Then as the situation worsened, this shifted to “Lebanon needs a soft or controlled landing, we need to avoid a lost decade, measures need to be taken to escape a hard crash”. Unfortunately, if one just looks outside, or takes a short walk, he will witness the long lines for fuel, the empty pharmacies, and the dark houses devoid of electricity, it has become obvious that we have entered the third phase, “the dreaded crash”. There is a significant number of governance theories and…
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US elections Lesson learned for Lebanon, PART II
Part 1 of this series explored how the ease and openness of the electoral process positively impacted the turnout and overall legitimacy of elections. However, it is equally important to examine the importance of increasing the involvement and participation of youth, women, and other marginalized groups in the electoral process. Their vote is crucial to strengthen democratic, liberal, and institutional ideals and stem the rising tide of populism and authoritarianism. Therefore, Part 2 of this series will explore the different methods to increase the political participation of youth, women, and minorities in the electoral process, emphasizing how to reach them through social media. Meanwhile, keeping in line with the basic premises…
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US elections Lesson Learned for Lebanon
April 19, 2021 The new US president has been elected, sworn in, and his new administration is up and running. After an ‘eventful’ election night that stretched into a week, a long counting period, unending litigations, ending with an attack on the US capitol. Personally, it was very interesting to follow the electoral process, from polling to projections, the ups and downs that accompanied the elections, and the inner working of a modern democracy, and how it resists authoritarian creep. What made it even more captivating was how the elections results and a new US administration will impact Lebanon, the region, and the world. This series of articles will try…
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The Data Liberation Project
A few days after the May 6, 2018 parliamentary, the Ministry of Interior (MOI) published the results. The initial results were in a PDF format, with limited information. They lacked a breakdown of participation or voting per district. As an avid analyst with an interest in data and patterns recognition, that was very frustrating. Fortunately, the MOI released the full results a week later. However, the MOI also published these results in a static PDF format, grouped by the preliminary counting committees, severely limiting any possible analysis and cross linkage. Consequently, I started working on possible methods to convert and reorganize the data to make it easily accessible, and then…
