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    FNF Lebanon

    This site is generously supported and funded by FNF Lebanon FNF Lebanon is part of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation in Germany, based on the principles of liberalism, the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom offers political education in Germany and abroad. Its headquarter is located in Potsdam, and we maintain offices throughout Germany and in over 60 countries around the world. FNF Beirut Office is focused on Lebanon and it’s people. Regional and local turmoil makes the work of the foundation in this country challenging, forcing our office in Beirut to constantly adapt to new social and political changes.In Lebanon, our main objective is to support Lebanese start-ups, civil society organizations…

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    Analyzing the number of lists

    After a tumultuous month filled with Machiavellian political machinations, the electoral lists for the next election in Lebanon are set! 103 lists were officially registered, vying for 128 parliamentary seats in 15 districts! It was a bumpy ride, filled with backstabbing, bluffs, and some last minutes surprises. Most political parties waited until the last possible moment before unveiling their lists. Negotiations were still ongoing hours before the close of the registration period last Monday at midnight! All sides kept their cards hidden for as long as possible, maximizing their strength and weakening their opponents. There was a significant upsurge on the last day, and the final number of lists rose…

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    E-day!

    That dreaded test of wills! The culmination of months of hard work, outreach, and dealmaking. It will be a very long day, especially for all individuals directly involved in the process, from poll officers, party monitors, the LAF and ISF members, and most importantly, the voters! So what to look for? However, it is important to note that the final results will take a long time to announce officially. Some credible reports are talking of Tuesday at the earliest. This is caused by the significant upsurge of expatriate votes that will not be speedily tallied. On the other hand, most electoral campaigns, especially well-organized and prepared parties, will have the…

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    Still no official results!

    It’s been three days, and no official results has been made available. the Minister of Interior announced on TV the list of the winning candidates, without Akkar, where apparently recounts were being done. The results were read live, and no detailed results were supplied. Officially that was it. Meanwhile, unofficial numbers are floating around, such as these results of Beirut-2, and a semi-official list of winning candidates and their preferential votes was circulated on whatsapp. We are still missing number of voters, invalid and white ballots, lists votes, losing candidates results… Unfortunately, the Interior Ministry official website is still empty and the wait goes on!

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    Prileminiary analysis!

    The official results and detailed numbers are still not out, casting a lengthening shadow on the electoral process. Nevertheless, there are a few conclusion that can already be made: 1- the monolithic iron control of the Shiite duo (Amal and Hezbollah) over their constituency and regions, is intact, almost absolute, and crushing. They won a full slate in two southern regions, in a PROPORTIONAL law, with the precense of a small but significant minority in one of these regions. 2- the Lebanese Forces have significantly benefitted from the law, as their support is strong but scattered over many regions. Their numbers of MPs jumped by over 100% 3- The Aounist…

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    E-Day indicators!

    During E-day and the early hours of counting, there are a few indicators that could help us discern the election trends before the full counting is done. First and foremost are the participation numbers! Indeed these numbers are critical, especially for major parties, like FM, FPM, LF and Hezbollah and Amal. For example, in 2009 in Beirut III district only 38% voted. In this election, FM needs to raise this into the mid-forties to ensure that most of the small lists will not reach the threshold, thus raising the number of seats FM will win. Similarly, in Tripoli and Akkar, the more people vote the better it is for FM.…

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    Sunday Fun Facts!

    The oldest candidate for the upcoming elections is 90, Mr. Mikhail Daher, and there are 12 candidates in total who are 80 years old and above. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s median age is of 30 years, and 40% of them are under 24 years old. Tyre – Zahrani district has the lowest number of running lists with 2 Beirut II has the largest with 9 The largest projected threshold will be in the district of Tyre – Zahrani or Akkar with around 22,000. The smallest will be in Beirut I with around 7,000 Here is a breakdown of the different lists colors:        

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    Tyre – Zahrani* , a tough battle to break a monopoly!

    The deep South, the stronghold of Speaker Nabih Berri and his party Amal. Despite Hezbollah pressure and influence, Speaker Berri has been able to cement his control over this area, while keeping it relatively liberal. Indeed, you can still have a drink on the seaside, while enjoying a swim in Tyre, as opposed to the rest of the south, which have fallen under Hezbollah more strict and conservative hegemony. Historically, the region has been under the influence of a few feudal families like the As’ad and the Ousseiran, with a significant communist and leftist presence. With the advent of Moussa Sader and the civil war in 1975, these families lost…

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    Saida – Jezzine, the smallest district and biggest battle!

    The saida Jezzine district is the smallest among the 15 others, with only 5 seats. Officially there are around 120,000 are registered and it is expected that around 70,000 will vote (60%, with more voting in Saida than in Jezzine), indicating a minimum threshold of around 14,000. Saida is the third largest city in Lebanon, after Beirut and Tripoli. It is a Sunni stronghold, forming more 80% of its population. Saida’s two parliamentary seats have always been coveted, especially after the end of the civil war, when Rafik Hariri, who originated from the small coastal city entered the political arena. Before the war, Saida had one seat, and it was fiercely…

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    What is this about?

    This website aims to spread knowledge about the upcoming Lebanese parliamentary election, focusing on informing its readers on the law, how to vote, and then the possible outcome. You can find important information in our resources page, such as a map of the 15 districts, a full copy of the electoral law Arabic and English, and many more. Please feel free to contact us for any inquiries of questions. Moreover, once enough polls and projections of the result have been published (we will make sure to link and copy them in here), we will use these numbers and several methods, to construct a Poll of Polls. This poll will have…